Oh well...

These are musings on sundry matters, some personal and some of general interest to me. It will be nice to have comments from those of you who actually read this stuff. And more often than not, I will comment on your comments as well. So check back. And please, don't leave any damn links instead of comments.

Tuesday, May 27, 2008

Climate statisticians

It's been on my mind for a couple of weeks now, but I never got down to writing about it. Not that climate change is anything new to write about. However, I was prompted by a study published in the journal Nature that was carried out by some German scientists. Their conclusive contention was that global warming, i.e., the rise of the temperature of our world, has not really happened at all in the last 10 years, and will not happen for another 10. Maybe they are right. Other detractors also say that temperature change on a global scale is anyway a cyclical phenomenon and there isn't really anything we humans can do to make any significant impact on it.

What are these people trying to say, or do? If they do not spend ALL their time indoors (and even then perhaps), it is quite impossible to have not noticed the changes in weather conditions, irrespective of the part of the world they live in. Seasons change later, or sooner, than they used to, they or colder or warmer than they were, rains and hail come when they want and increasingly not when they used to, and there seems to be a definite spurt in the events of extreme climatic occurrences. I mean, what are they looking for, for it to rain frogs and lizards?

Combined with that, of course, we are seeing severe food shortages in parts of the world, and food prices shooting up in many others. And let us not even start with the cost of oil products. $135 a barrel of crude says it all. Growing crops for biofuels is not a good solution because well, there is only so much arable land, and food is already on way to become a luxury. Renewable sources of energy have yet to come of age in a way big enough to replace even half of the current oil usage.

As a species, I suppose here is yet another example of paying a price for our short sightedness, stupidity, selfishness and avarice. Of course, we won't learn. And most of those who will pay the real price won't be the ones who caused the real damage to start with. Perhaps, nothing much will change. Considering the world has already coined terms like eco-terrorism, there is only so far these environmentalists can hope to go before it really is too late. Especially with articles like the one I mentioned above being published in reputed journals. I wonder who paid for this particular piece of 'research', which after all, will be a bunch of statistics. And statistics, as any sensible person knows, do not usually reflect an honest picture.

8 comments:

Anonymous said...

I was quite astonished when I read that article as well. Just when people (especially Indians who are as it is not socially and environmentally sensitized enough), were beginning to at least scratch their chins at the merits of being frugal with resources etc., here comes this report that undoes months and years of hammering. What I dont get is how this damn report explains our hitherto surf excel white poles turning green with vegetation....or does that also happen from time to time? assholes!

The Author said...

when you talk of indians being frugal with resources, i am not sure about my stance. same for other developing places, like brazil or china. i am not sure if they even should be frugal, despite the obvious impacts. after all, how else does one play catch up?

Anonymous said...

I mean frugality at the micro level, for example buying a slightly more expensive home appliance which is more energy efficient. Or not letting water overflow for hours on end on our overhead water tanks. I think steps taken at the individual's level alone can make a decent enough difference. That sort of awareness is higher in the developed world.

Anonymous said...

there are 3 kinds of lies - lies , damned lied and statistics @ m. twain, i failed twice at lies btw in my postgrad)

lemme tell you as someone who has kept his eyes on these things- food shortage due to diverting of land towards biofuels is bullshit atleast in context of india. worldwide also there are number of ways to diffuse the crisis like better varities or cropping systems (like System of Rice Intensification, SRI, for rice). i think this are just transition pains. imagine a world not dependent on arab oil. call me racist ( which i m not , i m casteist) but it gladdens me. if some die, well a study says earth is supporting 6 times more it can maintain, it will be a small step toward equilibrium. fuck i m ranting .
a v tyagi

The Author said...

i am not sure if i agree with the frugality at the individual level. i mean, not exactly to do with climate change, but the principle of frugality... in the UK, more than 400,000 apples are wasted everyday. no bullshit. figures i heard on the BBC more than 3 times. plus, if there was enough collective individual awareness in the developed world, it wouldn't still be far ahead in terms of polluting the world that it wants everyone else to clean up. the USoA is the primce example. and the concpt of carbon trading... talk about making money of fucking pollution too.

and vineet, the whole idea of trying to cut out pollution itself is mostly bullshit in the case of india. we dont give a shit for the most part. as for arab oil, well, the world will depend on it as long as there is any still left. after that will begin the real transition pain. and if some die... now thats something to be relieved about. i am not racist, or casteist, just a misanthrope. :)

Chandni said...

The first day of my climate change class where a very strict teacher was explaining how global warming is an actual phenomenon and not just some humbug stuff made up by scientistis, somebody says,"Ma'am but I read State of Fear by Michael Crichton and he says that climate change is all bunkum."

This is the exact problem with climate change: fact and fiction, sensational news and scary numbers have colaesced into a heady mixture.

I enjoyed your write up :) I will go read the paper in Nature right now.

The Author said...

yep, its a heady mixture alright. part of the problem is too many "educated" folk are going by what they read on a piece of paper somewhere or the other, while not using their own powers of observation for the blindingly obvious. glad you enjoyed the write up, but if you don't mind me asking, how'd you stumble across it? and oh, spread the word!

Chandni said...

reached here by chance :)